Friday, December 26, 2014
ALBERT PIKE AND THE 3 WORLD WARS.
WARN THE PEOPLE
1 Again the word of the LORD came unto me, saying,
2 Son of man, speak to the children of thy people, and say unto them, When I bring the sword upon a land, if the people of the land take a man of their coasts, and set him for their watchman:
3 If when he seeth the sword come upon the land, he blow the trumpet, and warn the people;
4 Then whosoever heareth the sound of the trumpet, and taketh not warning; if the sword come, and take him away, his blood shall be upon his own head.
5 He heard the sound of the trumpet, and took not warning; his blood shall be upon him. But he that taketh warning shall deliver his soul.
6 But if the watchman see the sword come, and blow not the trumpet, and the people be not warned; if the sword come, and take any person from among them, he is taken away in his iniquity; but his blood will I require at the watchman’s hand.
WW3 THE 3 WAVES THAT MARCH TO ISRAEL
http://israndjer.blogspot.com/2005/11/questions-ww3-whats-coming.html (WW3 COMPLETE HAPPENINGS)
EZEKIEL 32:2-9 (GODS IN CONTROL OF EVERYTHING)(PROTECTS ISRAEL)
2 Son of man, take up a lamentation for Pharaoh king of Egypt, and say unto him, Thou art like a young lion of the nations, and thou art as a whale in the seas: and thou camest forth with thy rivers, and troubledst the waters with thy feet, and fouledst their rivers.
3 Thus saith the Lord GOD; I will therefore spread out my net over thee with a company of many people; and they shall bring thee up in my net.
4 Then will I leave thee upon the land, I will cast thee forth upon the open field, and will cause all the fowls of the heaven to remain upon thee, and I will fill the beasts of the whole earth with thee.
5 And I will lay thy flesh upon the mountains, and fill the valleys with thy height.
6 I will also water with thy blood the land wherein thou swimmest, even to the mountains; and the rivers shall be full of thee.
7 And when I shall put thee out, I will cover the heaven, and make the stars thereof dark; I will cover the sun with a cloud, and the moon shall not give her light.
8 All the bright lights of heaven will I make dark over thee, and set darkness upon thy land, saith the Lord GOD.
9 I will also vex the hearts of many people, when I shall bring thy destruction among the nations, into the countries which thou hast not known.
10 All the sinners of my people shall die by the sword, which say, The evil shall not overtake nor prevent us.
40 And at the time of the end shall the king of the south( EGYPT) push at him:(EU DICTATOR IN ISRAEL) and the king of the north (RUSSIA AND MUSLIM HORDES OF EZEK 38+39) shall come against him like a whirlwind, with chariots, and with horsemen, and with many ships; and he shall enter into the countries, and shall overflow and pass over.
41 He shall enter also into the glorious land, and many countries shall be overthrown: but these shall escape out of his hand, even Edom, and Moab, and the chief of the children of Ammon.(JORDAN)
42 He shall stretch forth his hand also upon the countries: and the land of Egypt shall not escape.
43 But he shall have power over the treasures of gold and of silver, and over all the precious things of Egypt: and the Libyans and the Ethiopians shall be at his steps.
44 But tidings out of the east(CHINA 2ND WAVE OF WW3) and out of the north(RUSSIA, MUSLIMS WHATS LEFT FROM WAVE 1) shall trouble him:(EU DICTATOR IN ISRAEL) therefore he shall go forth with great fury to destroy, and utterly to make away many.( 1/3RD OF EARTHS POPULATION)
45 And he shall plant the tabernacles of his palace between the seas in the glorious holy mountain; yet he shall come to his end, and none shall help him.
18 And another angel came out from the altar, which had power over fire; and cried with a loud cry to him that had the sharp sickle, saying, Thrust in thy sharp sickle, and gather the clusters of the vine of the earth; for her grapes are fully ripe.
19 And the angel thrust in his sickle into the earth, and gathered the vine of the earth, and cast it into the great winepress of the wrath of God.
20 And the winepress was trodden without the city,(JERUSALEM) and blood came out of the winepress, even unto the horse bridles, by the space of a thousand and six hundred furlongs.(200 MILES) (THE SIZE OF ISRAEL)
9 And he said, Go, and tell this people, Hear ye indeed, but understand not; and see ye indeed, but perceive not.
10 Make the heart of this people fat, and make their ears heavy, and shut their eyes; lest they see with their eyes, and hear with their ears, and understand with their heart, and convert, and be healed.
11 Then said I, Lord, how long? And he answered, Until the cities be wasted without inhabitant, and the houses without man, and the land be utterly desolate,
12 And the LORD have removed men far away, and there be a great forsaking in the midst of the land.
1 Behold, the LORD maketh the earth empty, and maketh it waste,(NUKES USED) and turneth it upside down, and scattereth abroad the inhabitants thereof.(WORLD IMMIGRATION)
The Third and Final Wave of WW3 is when all Nations march to Jerusalem, but JESUS bodily returns to earth and destroys them,sets up his KINGDOM OF RULE FOR 1000 YEARS THEN FOREVER.
10 And in that day (WHEN JESUS IS RULING ON EARTH AT THE END OF THE 7 YEAR TRIBULATION PERIOD) there shall be a root of Jesse, which shall stand for an ensign of the people; to it shall the Gentiles seek: and his rest shall be glorious.
11 And it shall come to pass in that day, that the Lord shall set his hand again the second time to recover the remnant of his people, which shall be left, from Assyria, and from Egypt, and from Pathros, and from Cush, and from Elam, and from Shinar, and from Hamath, and from the islands of the sea.
12 And he shall set up an ensign for the nations, and shall assemble the outcasts of Israel, and gather together the dispersed of Judah from the four corners of the earth.
13 The envy also of Ephraim shall depart, and the adversaries of Judah shall be cut off: Ephraim shall not envy Judah, and Judah shall not vex Ephraim.
14 But they shall fly upon the shoulders of the Philistines toward the west; they shall spoil them of the east together: they shall lay their hand upon Edom and Moab; and the children of Ammon shall obey them.
15 And the LORD shall utterly destroy the tongue of the Egyptian sea; and with his mighty wind shall he shake his hand over the river, and shall smite it in the seven streams, and make men go over dryshod.
16 And there shall be an highway for the remnant of his people, which shall be left, from Assyria; like as it was to Israel in the day that he came up out of the land of Egypt.
2ND WAVE CHINA AND KINGS OF THE EAST MARCH TO ISRAEL
12 And the sixth angel poured out his vial upon the great river Euphrates;(WERE WW3 STARTS IN IRAQ OR SYRIA OR TURKEY) and the water thereof was dried up, that the way of the kings of the east might be prepared.
13 And I saw three unclean spirits like frogs come out of the mouth of the dragon,(SATAN) and out of the mouth of the beast,(WORLD DICTATOR) and out of the mouth of the false prophet.(FALSE POPE)
14 For they are the spirits of devils, working miracles, which go forth unto the kings of the earth and of the whole world, to gather them to the battle of that great day of God Almighty.(WERE 2 BILLION DIE FROM NUKE WAR)
15 Behold, I come as a thief. Blessed is he that watcheth, and keepeth his garments, lest he walk naked, and they see his shame.
16 And he gathered them together into a place called in the Hebrew tongue Armageddon.(ITS AT THIS TIME I BELIEVE WHEN AMERICA GETS NUKED BY RUSSIA ON THE WAY TO THE MIDEAST)
DANIEL 11:44 (2ND WAVE OF WW3)
44 But tidings out of the east(CHINA) and out of the north(RUSSIA, MUSLIMS WHATS LEFT FROM WAVE 1) shall trouble him:(EU DICTATOR IN ISRAEL) therefore he shall go forth with great fury to destroy, and utterly to make away many.( 1/3RD OF EARTHS POPULATION)
12 One woe is past; and, behold, there come two woes more hereafter.
13 And the sixth angel sounded, and I heard a voice from the four horns of the golden altar which is before God,
14 Saying to the sixth angel which had the trumpet, Loose the four(DEMONIC WAR) angels which are bound in the great river Euphrates.(WORLDWIDE WAR)(TURKEY-IRAQ-SYRIA)(EUPHRATES RIVER CONSISTS OF 760 MILES IN TURKEY,440 MILES IN SYRIA AND 660 MILES IN IRAQ)
15 And the four(DEMONIC WAR) angels were loosed,(WORLDWIDE WAR) which were prepared for an hour, and a day, and a month, and a year, for to slay the third part of men.(1/3 Earths Population die in WW 3 2ND WAVE-2 billion)
16 And the number of the army of the horsemen were two hundred thousand thousand:(200 MILLION MAN ARMY FROM CHINA AND THE KINGS OF THE EAST) and I heard the number of them.
17 And thus I saw the horses in the vision, and them that sat on them, having breastplates of fire, and of jacinth, and brimstone: and the heads of the horses were as the heads of lions; and out of their mouths issued fire and smoke and brimstone.(NUCLEAR BOMBS)
18 By these three was the third part of men killed, by the fire, and by the smoke, and by the brimstone, which issued out of their mouths.(NUCLEAR BOMBS)
WARS AND RUMURS OF WARS.
6 And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.
7 For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom:(ETNIC GROUP AGAINST ETHNIC GROUP) and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places.
8 All these are the beginning of sorrows.
7 And when ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars, be ye not troubled: for such things must needs be; but the end shall not be yet.
EU MEMBER STATE SOVEREIGNTY
GRASSROOTS DEMOCRACY ACT
OPEN OUR DEMOCRACY ACT
ISRAELI DEMOCRACY AND ELECTIONS
DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS U.N
ALBERT PIKE AND THE 3 WORD WARS.
Pike's Letter to Mazzini
It is a commonly believed fallacy that for a short time, the Pike letter to Mazzini was on display in the British Museum Library in London, and it was copied by William Guy Carr, former Intelligence Officer in the Royal Canadian Navy. The British Library has confirmed in writing to me that such a document has never been in their possession. Furthermore, in Carr's book, Satan, Prince of this World, Carr includes the following footnote: "The Keeper of Manuscripts recently informed the author that this letter is NOT catalogued in the British Museum Library. It seems strange that a man of Cardinal Rodriguez's knowledge should have said that it WAS in 1925".It appears that Carr learned about this letter from Cardinal Caro y Rodriguez of Santiago, Chile, who wrote The Mystery of Freemasonry Unveiled.To date, no conclusive proof exists to show that this letter was ever written. Nevertheless, the letter is widely quoted and the topic of much discussion.Following are apparently extracts of the letter, showing how Three World Wars have been planned for many generations.
"The First World War must be brought about in order to permit the Illuminati to overthrow the power of the Czars in Russia and of making that country a fortress of atheistic Communism. The divergences caused by the "agentur" (agents) of the Illuminati between the British and Germanic Empires will be used to foment this war. At the end of the war, Communism will be built and used in order to destroy the other governments and in order to weaken the religions." 2
Students of history will recognize that the political alliances of England on one side and Germany on the other, forged between 1871 and 1898 by Otto von Bismarck, co-conspirator of Albert Pike, were instrumental in bringing about the First World War.
"The Second World War must be fomented by taking advantage of the differences between the Fascists and the political NWOs. This war must be brought about so that Nazism is destroyed and that the political NWO be strong enough to institute a sovereign state of Israel in Palestine. During the Second World War, International Communism must become strong enough in order to balance Christendom, which would be then restrained and held in check until the time when we would need it for the final social cataclysm." 3
After this Second World War, Communism was made strong enough to begin taking over weaker governments. In 1945, at the Potsdam Conference between Truman, Churchill, and Stalin, a large portion of Europe was simply handed over to Russia, and on the other side of the world, the aftermath of the war with Japan helped to sweep the tide of Communism into China.(Readers who argue that the terms Nazism and NWO were not known in 1871 should remember that the Illuminati invented both these movements. In addition, Communism as an ideology, and as a coined phrase, originates in France during the Revolution. In 1785, Restif coined the phrase four years before revolution broke out. Restif and Babeuf, in turn, were influenced by Rousseau - as was the most famous conspirator of them all, Adam Weishaupt.)
"The Third World War must be fomented by taking advantage of the differences caused by the "agentur" of the "Illuminati" between the political NWOs and the leaders of Islamic World. The war must be conducted in such a way that Islam (the Moslem Arabic World) and political NWO (the State of Israel) mutually destroy each other. Meanwhile the other nations, once more divided on this issue will be constrained to fight to the point of complete physical, moral, spiritual and economical exhaustion…We shall unleash the Nihilists and the atheists, and we shall provoke a formidable social cataclysm which in all its horror will show clearly to the nations the effect of absolute atheism, origin of savagery and of the most bloody turmoil. Then everywhere, the citizens, obliged to defend themselves against the world minority of revolutionaries, will exterminate those destroyers of civilization, and the multitude, disillusioned with Christianity, whose deistic spirits will from that moment be without compass or direction, anxious for an ideal, but without knowing where to render its adoration, will receive the true light through the universal manifestation of the pure doctrine of Lucifer, brought finally out in the public view. This manifestation will result from the general reactionary movement which will follow the destruction of Christianity and atheism, both conquered and exterminated at the same time." 4
Since the terrorist attacks of Sept 11, 2001, world events, and in particular in the Middle East, show a growing unrest and instability between Modern NWO and the Arabic World. This is completely in line with the call for a Third World War to be fought between the two, and their allies on both sides. This Third World War is still to come, and recent events show us that it is not far off.
1. Lady Queensborough: Occult Theocracy, pp. 208-209.
2, 3, 4. Cmdr. William Guy Carr: Quoted in Satan: Prince of This World.
THE WORLD GOVERNMENT MOST POWERFUL GROUPS-THAT WANT IT
1-USELESS UNITED NATIONS
3-COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
4-CLUB OF ROME
23 Thus he said, The fourth beast (EU,REVIVED ROME) shall be the fourth kingdom upon earth,(7TH WORLD EMPIRE) which shall be diverse from all kingdoms, and shall devour the whole earth, and shall tread it down, and break it in pieces.(TRADING BLOCKS-10 WORLD REGIONS/TRADE BLOCS)
24 And the ten horns out of this kingdom are ten kings(10 NATIONS-10 WORLD DIVISION WORLD GOVERNMENT) that shall arise: and another shall rise after them; and he shall be diverse from the first, and he shall subdue three kings.(TAKE OVER 3 WORLD REGIONS)
4 But thou, O Daniel, shut up the words, and seal the book, even to the time of the end: many shall run to and fro, and knowledge shall be increased.
1 And at that time shall Michael stand up, the great prince which standeth for the children of thy people: and there shall be a time of trouble, such as never was since there was a nation even to that same time: and at that time thy people shall be delivered, every one that shall be found written in the book.
REVELATION 13:1-3,7,8,12,16-18(ALL THE WORLDS CITIZENS UNDER DICTATORSHIP)
1 And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and upon his horns ten crowns, and upon his heads the name of blasphemy.
2 And the beast which I saw was like unto a leopard, and his feet were as the feet of a bear, and his mouth as the mouth of a lion: and the dragon gave him his power, and his seat, and great authority.
3 And I saw one of his heads as it were wounded to death; and his deadly wound was healed: and all the world wondered after the beast.
7 And it was given unto him to make war with the saints, and to overcome them: and power was given him over all kindreds, and tongues, and nations.
8 And all that dwell upon the earth shall worship him, whose names are not written in the book of life of the Lamb slain from the foundation of the world.
12 And he exerciseth all the power of the first beast before him, and causeth the earth and them which dwell therein to worship the first beast, whose deadly wound was healed.
16 And he causeth all,(WORLD SOCIALISM) both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:
17 And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.
18 Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.
3 So he carried me away in the spirit into the wilderness: and I saw a woman sit upon a scarlet coloured beast, full of names of blasphemy, having seven heads and ten horns.
7 And the angel said unto me, Wherefore didst thou marvel? I will tell thee the mystery of the woman, and of the beast that carrieth her, which hath the seven heads and ten horns.
9 And here is the mind which hath wisdom. The seven heads are seven mountains, on which the woman sitteth.
10 And there are seven kings: five are fallen, and one is, and the other is not yet come; and when he cometh, he must continue a short space.
12 And the ten horns which thou sawest are ten kings, which have received no kingdom as yet; but receive power as kings one hour with the beast.
18 And the woman which thou sawest is that great city, which reigneth over the kings of the earth.
We shall have World Government, whether or not we like it. The only question is whether World Government will be achieved by conquest or consent.James Paul Warburg appearing before the Senate on 7th February 1950
Like a famous WWII Belgian General,Paul Henry Spock said in 1957:We need no commission, we have already too many. What we need is a man who is great enough to be able to keep all the people in subjection to himself and to lift us out of the economic bog into which we threaten to sink. Send us such a man. Be he a god or a devil, we will accept him.And today, sadly, the world is indeed ready for such a man.
No one will enter the New World Order... unless he or she will make a pledge to worship Lucifer. No one will enter the New Age unless he will take a Luciferian Initiation.- David Spangler Director of Planetary Initiative United Nations.
WORLD POWERS IN THE LAST DAYS (END OF AGE OF GRACE NOT THE WORLD)
EUROPEAN UNION-KING OF WEST-DAN 9:26-27,DAN 7:23-24,DAN 11:40,REV 13:1-10
EGYPT-KING OF THE SOUTH-DAN 11:40
RUSSIA-KING OF THE NORTH-EZEK 38:1-2,EZEK 39:1-3
CHINA-KING OF THE EAST-DAN 11:44,REV 9:16,18
VATICAN-RELIGIOUS LEADER-REV 13:11-18,REV 17:4-5,9,18
PROOF HALF ON EARTH DIE DURING THE 7 YR TRIBULATION PERIOD (8 BILLION ON EARTH)
REVELATION 6:7-8 (8 BILLION- 2 BILLION = 6 BILLION)
7 And when he had opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth beast say, Come and see.
8 And I looked, and behold a pale horse:(CHLORES GREEN) and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth,(2 BILLION) to kill with sword,(WEAPONS) and with hunger,(FAMINE) and with death,(INCURABLE DISEASES) and with the beasts of the earth.(ANIMAL TO HUMAN DISEASE).
REVELATION 9:15,18 (6 BILLION - 2 BILLION = 4 BILLION)
15 And the four(DEMONIC WAR) angels were loosed,
18 By these three was the third part of men killed,(2 BILLION) by the fire, and by the smoke, and by the brimstone, which issued out of their mouths.(NUCLEAR ATOMIC BOMBS)
HALF OF EARTHS POPULATION DIE DURING THE 7 YR TRIBULATION.(THESE VERSES ARE JUDGEMENT SCRIPTURES NOT RAPTURE SCRIPTURES)
LUKE 17:34-37 (8 TOTAL BILLION - 4 BILLION DEAD IN TRIB = 4 BILLION TO JESUS KINGDOM) (HALF DIE DURING THE 7 YR TRIBULATION PERIOD JUST LIKE THE BIBLE SAYS)(GOD DOES NOT LIE)(AND NOTICE MOST DIE IN WAR AND DISEASES-NOT COMETS-ASTEROIDS-QUAKES OR TSUNAMIS)
34 I tell you, in that night there shall be two men in one bed; the one shall be taken,(IN WW3 JUDGEMENT) and the other shall be left.
35 Two women shall be grinding together; the one shall be taken,(IN WW3 JUDGEMENT) and the other left.
36 Two men shall be in the field; the one shall be taken,(IN WW3 JUDGEMENT) and the other left.
37 And they answered and said unto him, Where, Lord? And he said unto them, Wheresoever the body is, thither will the eagles be gathered together.(Christians have new bodies,this is the people against Jerusalem during the 7 yr treaty)(Christians bodies are not being eaten by the birds).THESE ARE JUDGEMENT SCRIPTURES-NOT RAPTURE SCRIPTURES.BECAUSE NOT HALF OF PEOPLE ON EARTH ARE CHRISTIANS.AND THE CONTEXT IN LUKE 17 IS THE 7 YEAR TRIBULATION OR 7 YR TREATY PERIOD.WHICH IS JUDGEMENT ON THE EARTH.NOT 50% RAPTURED TO HEAVEN.
37 But as the days of Noe were, so shall also the coming of the Son of man be.
38 For as in the days that were before the flood they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day that Noe entered into the ark,
39 And knew not until the flood came, and took them all away; so shall also the coming of the Son of man be.
40 Then shall two be in the field; the one shall be taken,(IN WW3 JUDGEMENT) and the other left.
41 Two women shall be grinding at the mill; the one shall be taken,(IN WW3 JUDGEMENT) and the other left.
42 Watch therefore:(FOR THE LAST DAYS SIGNS HAPPENING) for ye know not what hour your Lord doth come.
ATOMIC BOMB EFFECTS
Heat and Fire
Fifty percent of the energy from a nuclear detonation is distributed in blast forces. Approximately thirty-five percent of the weapon's energy comes in the form of heat. As Glasstone points out, one of the important differences between a nuclear and a conventional high-explosive is the amount of energy which is released in the form of thermal energy, which is to say, heat. At the point of detonation, it is estimated that temperatures of tens of millions of degrees are attained, compared with a few thousand degrees in the case of a conventional explosive.The role of thermal energy should not be treated as a secondary factor in attacks on urban centers, because the full destructive effect of the initial heat from the detonation is felt when the fuel presented by civilization is ignited and becomes itself a weapon of destruction. Glasstone indicates a military interest when he states, "The types of mass fires of particular interest, because of their great potential for destruction, are 'fire storms' and conflagrations.Further, with a detonation the immediate thermal effect on humans can be either disabling or fatal. As Glasstone states, "It has been estimated that some 50 percent of the deaths were caused by burns of one kind or another.At Hiroshima, it has been estimated, as Glasstone states, that: "solid materials on the ground immediately below the burst probably attained surface temperatures of 3,000 to 4,000°C (5,400 to 7,200°F)." And as far away as 0.61 mile, they may have reached 1,800°C (3,270°F). With a 250 Kt weapon such heat could readily extend from 1.1 to 2.6 miles; with 550 Kt it could be 2 to 3.9 miles. Thermal radiation from a nuclear explosion ignited upholstery and caused fire to spread in this car at the Nevada test site.The nuclear attacks on Japan occurred in August during hot weather. This contributed to casualties, because many people were outside and wearing relatively light clothing. Heavier clothing and fewer people being outside (i.e., being shielded by a building) would have tended to reduce casualties in areas where the buildings did not collapse or burn. This lady's skin is burned in a pattern corresponding to the dark patterns of her kimono. The dark sections of clothing absorbed more heat and burnt her at the time of the flash.
Some key difference in features between the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombing are that: 1) A smaller bomb was used at Hiroshima, roughly a 12.5 Kt versus 21 Kt at Nagasaki. 2) A stationary firestorm developed at Hiroshima which burnt out 4.4 square miles, while a moving and somewhat less destructive fire (not technically a firestorm) developed in the more hilly Nagasaki. 3) And, the population density dropped off sharply at Nagasaki in areas away from the ground zero point.There is a great deal of discrepancy in casualty figures reported by authorities, in part because it is not known precisely how many were present at the time of detonation. At Hiroshima many responsible investigators report up to 90,000 to 120,000 deaths. The figures cited here originated from a 1956 study and are within a range acknowledged as reasonable by authorities. However, they show evidence of considerable rounding off, and the terms are not precisely defined [e.g., does killed mean dead within 4 months, or would some of the injured die within that period? From other authorities it was possible to learn that approximately 20% of the initially injured at Hiroshima tended to die within 4 months]. However, the study did provide population densities and did report outcomes for both Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Some other authorities do not.So with these caveats, the figures would appear to suggest that the percent of population killed at Nagasaki in the 0 - 1.6 mile range from ground zero was greater than at Hiroshima -- 62.8% versus 37.7%. This could be explained by the psi overpressures being greater, especially in the outer regions (2.5 versus 2 psi), due to a larger bomb at Nagasaki. But, for reasons which were less clear, in the most distant region, 1.6 - 3.1 miles, the percent and number of killed and injured was reported to be greater at Hiroshima than at Nagasaki.Even by comparison to the present era, Hiroshima was a very densely populated area with 22 to 26 thousand people per square mile in zones where its atomic bomb had primary influence. For this reason, the number of deaths at Hiroshima were high and comparable to deaths that would be expected in corresponding psi zones today in areas of similar population densities. By contrast, Nagasaki population density fell off to 4,400 people per square mile in zones where its atomic bomb had primary influence.The following is based on data that appeared in Glasstone, p. 544. I added the category uninjured. It is equal to the difference between the population in the region and the designated killed and injured. I also added static psi overpressure and percent figures. "Miles" indicate ranges of distance from ground zero. Population density is stated in population per square mile.
Multiple Simultaneous Nuclear Weapon-Detonations: a storm, not a cloud-The Nukefix "M" (Multiple Blasts) Command-In the book, Life After Nuclear War, Arthur Katz in 1982 wrote [p. 29]:
"The accumulated impact of weapons in urban areas, where boundaries for significant damage produced by one weapon overlap and intrude into the area of damage of others is not normally discussed. Thus, the potential devastation from this type of attack is significantly understated. No serious modeling or analysis of this type of problem is associated with discussions in the open literature."Katz wrote the above fully 37 years after the first detonation of a nuclear weapon. Let me reiterate the point, "No serious modeling or analysis of this type of problem is associated with discussions in the open literature." And this occurred in a society with freedom of speech and great technological advancements, well capable of analyzing the problem. Why? These matters are important, for without understanding both the limitations and capabilities of these weapons, we cannot hope to control them. The use of multiple nuclear weapons are the key features of war plans in nuclear weapon nations. We have long since past the era when most nations would tend to use one or two nuclear weapons, as at Hiroshima or Nagasaki.Let's start with what is widely known [when detonation occurs at an altitude to maximize 3.5+ psi destruction]. A single 20 Kt nuclear weapon would produce 8.04 square miles of 3+ psi destruction. From this we can easily calculate that detonating eight individual 20 Kt weapons would produce 64 square miles of 3+ psi destruction [64.3=8x8.04]. This is the same area of 3+ psi destruction that would occur upon detonating one 475 Kt thermonuclear weapon.On this basis, we are able to know that, at the absolute minimum, eight individual low-tech 20 Kt nuclear weapons are capable of producing a level a level of destruction equal to a large thermonuclear weapon (475 Kt). Parenthetically, it is well to note that 58% of Russia's strategic nuclear weapons are of about this size (500-550 Kt), and 87% of the thermonuclear weapons in the U.S. strategic arsenal are smaller than 475 Kt.Now let's go a step further and consider the potential consequences of SIMULTANEOUSLY DETONATING a pattern of eight nuclear weapons. I have not seen simultaneous nuclear air bursts discussed, or even hinted at, in the open literature, but too many of their effects are too obvious to ignore them, as can be seen in the "M" (Multiple Blasts) command in Nukefix.When eight low-tech 20 Kt nuclear weapons are detonated simultaneously in an encirclement pattern (5 mile radius, 4.3 miles between zero points in a circle) in a high population density urban area, at least as much destruction would tend to be produced as with a single one megaton thermonuclear weapon. The reason for this is firestorms and the interaction of blast forces.A one megaton weapon would cause 105 square miles of 3+ psi destruction. With firestorms, the 20 Kt encirclement pattern can readily envelope 105 square miles in total destruction, leaving no escape for the inhabitants. At a population density of 12,000 per square mile the 20 Kt encirclement pattern might well produce 53% more deaths than a single one megaton weapon, which is to say, approximately 1,082,884 deaths with 20 Kt encirclement versus approximately 708,426 deaths with a one-megaton blast. [This can be calculated with the "M" command in the downloadable computer program Nukefix]
With the simultaneous detonation of eight 20 Kt weapons on a day with 35 mile visibility, the thermal energy from the initial blast throughout the 105 square miles would be sufficient to ignite items having the same degree of flammability as thin black rubber at every point that was in line of sight of the contributing weapons. At Hiroshima (12.5 Kt), the approximate area characterized here by the flammability of rubber was involved in a firestorm.While every flammable item of such characteristics would not ignite, a sufficient number would tend to burn that the entire area would be immediately subject to creation of firestorms, and the whole area would eventually tend to be subject to firestorms as fires from the hottest areas coalesced. Upholstery and other similarly flammable interior items near windows in homes would have a potential to start fires.At initiation, this would be akin to eight simultaneous Hiroshima firestorms and, in addition, intermediate fires ignited by thermal energy and other sources. Blast forces, for example, can overturn gas stoves and furnaces or bring flammable objects into contact with them to cause fires, as often happens in earthquakes and similar events.Although some factors mitigate against firestorms, such as insufficient fuel (e.g., lack of buildings, etc. to burn) and poor ignition conditions especially due to weather (e.g., rain or fog), firestorms, in many cases, would be the chief killer in an urban environment.Ominously at the highest levels of command the full range of effects from firestorms were not even used in planning in the U.S. nuclear war plan as late as 1991. The Washington Post [Dec. 7, 1997, Page W18] indicated that "nowhere did the war plan [the US SIOP in 1991] take into consideration the effects of the massive firestorms and lethal clouds of radioactive fallout that weapons planners knew would sprout from multiple detonations." Independently corroborating the same, in 1999 General George Lee Butler (a former Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Strategic Command) wrote, regarding war plans for a U.S - Soviet Union war: ". . . the calculations as to the military effectiveness of that attack was based on only one criterion, and that was blast damage. It did not take into account fire; it did not take into account radiation. Can you imagine that? We never understood, probably didn't care about, and certainly would not have been able to calculate with any precision, the holistic effects of 20,000 nuclear weapons being exploded virtually simultaneously on the face of the earth." [George Lee Butler, "The Responsibility to End Nuclear Madness," Waging Peace Worldwide, Journal of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, Vol. 9, No. 2, Summer 1999, p. iv.]-Firestorms and radioactive fallout however are apt to figure more prominently in war plans when nuclear weapon arsenals are reduced, and there is an effort to get greater lethality out of fewer weapons. Then the issue of simultaneous detonations and firestorms will influence our ability to achieve meaningful arms control that would, indeed, reduce risk of death.Although the high-tech aspects of the physics of a single weapon usually receive greatest attention, the physics involved in a confluence of blast forces and thermal energy from multiple weapons simultaneously detonating can be made to present far greater destruction in an urban environment than can a single thermonuclear weapons of the sizes that currently predominate.There are two reasons for this: First, there is a ceiling on the amount of destruction that a single weapon can produce, because the radius of destruction for any given level of blast increases approximately as the cube root of the energy output, measured in kilotons. Further, a very large weapon, say one half megaton, must be detonated at a higher altitude (0.9 miles higher than a 20 Kt weapon) to maximize 3.5+ psi destruction, making it further from the target. Thus each increase in yield often has a modest incremental increase in destruction in urban areas. These limitations on destruction can be overcome by simultaneously detonating clusters of weapons, using patterns such as encirclement. The use of cluster bombs with conventional weapons (as in NATO's 1999 war in Yugoslavia) also illustrates the effects that can be achieved with multiple explosions in a specific area.Second, it is not generally appreciated that some buildings and humans escape destruction when individual nuclear weapons are used alone. As Glasstone states, "close to ground zero the casualty rate will be high, but it will drop sharply beyond a certain distance . . . [p. 545]." Indeed, the earlier tables for Hiroshima and Nagasaki showed large percentages of "uninjured." The survival rate for humans in the exposed area beyond the 2 psi boundary has the potential to be in the order of 75+%, as can be seen in the earlier tables of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.Closer in, at static overpressures in excess of 2 psi, survival rates can be in the neighborhood of 45% of the total population in the area. A similar percent of buildings may survive. Heavy multistory steel-frame construction may be especially resistant to blast pressures and survive. The only such building nuclearly attacked in Japan was 0.85 miles from ground zero in Nagasaki [6.7 psi]. It remained standing [Glasstone, p. 162]. But, as Glasstone points out, weakening of unprotected steel by fire can contribute significantly to the damage to steel-frame structures [pp. 162, 165]."
To overcome deficiencies in single weapon targeting, the incentive among weapon planners will be to use a simultaneous burst of multiple weapons. In an urban environment, the firestorms produced would insure that few humans or buildings would survive. As horrendous as past firestorms and nuclear attacks were in Japan, there were always a substantial number of survivors. A simultaneous blast of multiple weapons in an encirclement pattern raises the specter of no avenue of escape -- few to no survivors, a new plateau of horror in the history of war. This would be the case with even crude nuclear weapons of 20 Kt size.Weapon planners, especially in small nations, may consider such an analysis a clever originality. It is not. Any person with access to the Internet, a hand calculator, or moderate knowledge can easily arrive at such conclusions. Weapon planners in large nations who contemplate simultaneous bursts of larger weapons pose even greater risk.Simultaneously detonating nuclear weapons would produce greater and more complex forces than indicated by the individual circles in the above diagram. With 7 weapons in a circle, at the midpoint between zero point distance [half of 4.3 miles], two 20 Kt blast waves would collide at the 1.6 psi overpressure points. On interior points of the circle, the blast waves, depending upon the angles at which they met, would be reflected or merge. The key feature of encirclement in terms of blast forces is that the energy on the interior of the circle would be concentrated in a comparatively small area instead of dissipating from the zero point at a 128° angle over an ever larger area [the angle formed at an intersections of a 7 sided polygon]. The result is greater blast destruction on the interior of the circle than is commonly suggested when contemplating single weapon effects.The interaction of forces when shock waves collide is suggested in an excerpt from Paul Cooper's text Explosives Engineering (1996) [p. 216]:"In this example, two shock waves of unequal amplitude approach each other head-on. When they meet they produce a much higher pressure shock that is reflected back in each direction. You will see, as we solve this problem, that the final shock pressure produced is greater than the sum of the pressures of the initial two shocks."There are three points to remember during times of ostensible peace:In the military, as Paul Kaminski observed, "Periods of great innovation almost always come in resource-poor periods [Forecast and Solution, p. 578]."The Germans completed Schlieffen Plan in 1906 during a period of unparalleled peace (50 years of peace with very few war casualties worldwide). In August of 1914 it was put into action and resulted in WWI [Forecast and Solution, p. 563].in March 1940 the bold suggestion of Gen. Erich von Manstein that an offensive through the Ardennes should, in fact, be practicable for tank forces was adopted by Hitler, despite orthodox military opinion [Forecast and Solution, p. 597; Encyclopedia Britannica, 1983, Vol 19, p. 980; emphasis added]." With this action the Maginot Line was breached, and Hitler took France. "Unorthodoxy" is a favorite side dish on the military platter. And, especially when it comes in nuclear flavors, it is not nearly so tasty as its admirers usually assert.It is a mistake to view the developments of high-power thermonuclear weapons as giving an advantage to technologically highly developed militaries, because even a small nation that threatens to turn an adversary nation into a "sea of fire" has the capability to do so via simultaneously detonating "small" nuclear weapons, a size weapon often referred to as "tactical."Indeed, it is a misnomer (or even utter madness) to call a 20 Kt bomb "small" or "tactical." A 20 Kt bomb produces an explosive force equal to 40,000,000 pounds of TNT [40,000,000 = 20 x 1,000 x 2,000]. This is simply an enormous amount of destructive and death-dealing force. After all, one weapon of a smaller size (12.5 Kt) destroyed Japan's eighth largest city in WWII.In passing it is worth noting that larger weapons are more susceptible to thermal energy reductions when visibility drops from 35 to 6.2 miles due to weather conditions. When a 20 Kt and 550 Kt weapon are compared at radii which produce 10 cal/sq cm heat, the 35 to 6.2 mile reduction in visibility causes the thermal energy at the target to drop to 69% of its former value with a 550 Kt weapon. With a 20 Kt weapon it only drops to 89% of its former value. These conditions make smaller weapons, and nations using them, a more consistent performers under moderately adverse weather conditions.The thermal energy from simultaneous bursts can be readily calculated and can be illustrated for any size or number of nuclear weapons used in an encirclement pattern in the new version of the computer program Nukefix.If it were to accurately portray technological capabilities, the symbol of the atomic era would not be the mushroom cloud, but a firestorm.
The story, as David Fisher relates in his book, Fire and Ice, gives a feeling for the scope of the problem:"In the autumn of 1940 London was blitzed by an average of two hundred aircraft a night for sixty-one consecutive nights until finally the tables turned. On July 27, 1943 nearly a thousand British bombers dropped over two thousand tons of bombs on Hamburg, most of them incendiaries, turning that city into a burning, melting quagmire of horror. The temperature reached one thousand degrees in the center of town, igniting the world's first firestorm. The superheated air rose so fast it sucked in outside air in the form of hurricane-strength winds which force-fed the fire still further and blew helpless people like leaves into the burning center of destruction where they actually melted into pools of burning fat. On the outskirts of the storm other people were stuck in molten asphalt, suffocating and igniting. More than 40,000 people died that night. In the early spring of 1945 the American Twentieth Air Force topped the RAF's record by burning Tokyo, starting a conflagration that totaled sixteen square miles of intensely populated city, killing more than 80,000 people [Forecast and Solution, p. 644]."Indeed, the fires of WWII were deadly, far more lethal than simply dropping blast-producing explosives. There is a clear logic behind this which has two main components.The first is: Conventional blast damage alone has limited effect. The German V-1 missiles and V-2 rockets in WWII carried one ton warheads, and about 12,000 of them were launched. There were about 2.8 casualties per launch with the V1, and the V-2 killed an estimated five people per launch [Forecast and Solution, p. 322, Encyclopedia Britannica, 1983, Vol. 19, p. 694]. Such casualties by today's standards are small.The second is: There are limitations on how much blast destruction can be hauled in. In the early part of WWI planes, such as the B-17, were able to carry a maximum bomb load of approximately 3 tons. And to this date, limitations exist on the weight of blast producing damage that can be hauled to destroy cities or nations. When incendiary components are used, the target itself is converted into a weapon. And this has a capability of packing more destructive energy than even a nuclear device can deliver, because the target becomes its own fuel for destruction.In July 1943 the British fire bombing of Hamburg Germany, burnt more than five square miles, and it is estimated that over 42,000 people died. In March 1945 the U.S. dropped about 2,000 tons of incendiaries on Tokyo burning 15.8 square miles and causing an estimated 185,000 civilian casualties [Encyclopedia Britannica, 1983, Vol. 19, p. 693]. The March 9, 1945 Tokyo fire was a moving wave of flames driven by a 25 mph wind.When one compares incendiary to blast casualties, it is possible to get a rough sense of the difference in lethality for the two classes of weapons. The V-1 and V2 together produced roughly 3.6 casualties per ton of explosives launched. The incendiary bombing of Hamburg and Tokyo produced roughly 37.2 casualties per ton -- a ten to one advantage for the incendiary weapon, an advantage which has not escaped the attention of military planners.Indeed, without the math the message is clear. Incendiary weapons at Hamburg and Tokyo together produced more deaths than the nuclear weapons at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Fire simply has the potential to be enormously destructive and lethal in an urban environment.Postol, in Medical Implications of Nuclear War, points out that on a single raid about 500 tons of oil incendiaries and 600 tons of 4-pound magnesium incendiaries were dropped on Hamburg. "The incendiaries were designed to penetrate roof and floors into the interior of buildings, where test had shown that fires were most effectively set." On a single raid, about 1,300 tons of high-explosive bombs were dropped. "High explosives were used to block access roads with rubble and craters and to break waterlines that might be utilized by firefighters. In addition, contrary to the advice of experts, military analysts believed that high explosives would also open buildings so they would burn more rapidly and with greater efficiency [p. 52, emphasis added]."Brode and Small make it clear that, "Almost all buildings in the area burned simultaneously; the destruction was nearly complete, and for many escape was impossible. Virtually all combustibles were burned out . . . [p. 75]." And this heating becomes extraordinary, as Postol states, in "Hamburg, the heating of rubble from the fire made it impossible to enter the main area of the firestorm for 2 days following the raid [p. 44]."
Firestorms, the nuclear dimension
Glasstone makes it clear that:"There are two general ways in which fires can originate in a nuclear explosion. First, as a direct result of the absorption of thermal radiation, thin kindling fuels can be ignited. And second, as an indirect effect of the destruction caused by the blast wave, fires can be started by upset stoves, water heaters, and furnaces, electrical short circuits, and broken gas lines. No mater how the fire originates, its subsequent spread will be determined by the amount and distribution of combustible materials in the vicinity [p. 296]. . . .""Since most of the thermal radiation reaches a target before the blast wave, the subsequent arrival of the latter may affect the development of fires initiated by thermal radiation. In particular, there is a possibility that such fires may be extinguished by blast wind. . . . Although some fires may be extinguished by the blast, many others will undoubtedly persist [p. 298]. . . .""It has been estimated, for example, that the fire damage to buildings and other structures suffered at Hiroshima could have been produced by about 1,000 tons of incendiary bombs distributed over the city [p. 300, emphasis added]. . . .""Fires can be spread between buildings by burning brands which are borne aloft by the hot gasses and carried downwind for considerable distances. The fires can thus spread to distances greater than those at which radiative and convective heating can have significant effect. Long-range fire spread by brands could greatly extend the area of destruction by urban fires resulting from nuclear explosions . . . [p. 299]"At Hiroshima, as Postol points out, "the report of the U.S. Strategic Bombing survey noted that the near simultaneous initiation of fires, collapse of buildings, blockage of streets, and loss of water and power over an area of about 4.4 square miles (about 11.3 sq km) made escape from the aftermath of the attack considerably less likely, resulting in the very high casualty rates [p. 51]."With modern thermonuclear firestorms Brode and Small's studies indicate that "High mean temperatures, hurricane-force winds, and toxic gases would characterize the street-level environment. Analysis shows that the fire wind velocities increase with the size and intensity of the burning city and peak at approximately 90 miles per hour (40 m/s). Local wind values in natural channels, between buildings, or in streets may be somewhat higher; and gusts to even higher speeds can be expected. Intense fires, and thus a more severe fire environment, are likely in the more densely built cities [Brode and Small, p. 94]."Their studies, as Postol states, draw attention to the fact that: "A most striking prediction of these calculations is that the average ground level air temperatures would be above the boiling point of water throughout the fire zones, even if the city were lightly built-up [Postol, pp. 38, 40]." In the lightly built up city average winds of 40 miles per hour were anticipated to support the fire. In the heavily built-up city average winds were expected to be 60 mph. The lightly built-up city was defined as 15% of the area covered with 1.5 story buildings with an average fuel loading of 16 lbs/sq ft per story. The heavily built-up city was defined being 25% covered with 2.5 story buildings at the same 16 lbs/sq ft. per story. These fuel loadings are more than sufficient to support firestorms.Note that the Fire Sciences Dictionary defines fuel load as, "the total quantity of combustible contents of a building space or fire area, including interior finish and trim, expressed in heat units or the equivalent weight of wood."
Glasstone indicates that at Hiroshima and Nagasaki:"the damage by fire is much more dependent upon local terrain and meteorological conditions than are blast effects [p. 300]." . . . "A number of fires in industrial plants were initiated by furnaces and boilers being overturned, and by the collapse of buildings on them [Glasstone, p. 301]." . . . "By breaking windows and blowing in or damaging fire shutters, by stripping wall and roof sheathing, and collapsing walls and roofs, the blast made many buildings more vulnerable to fire [p. 301]."There were great differences in the fires at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. At Hiroshima a firestorm developed about 20 minutes after detonation and remained in the region in which the fires started burning everything that was combustible within the region (approximately 4.4 square miles) [Glasstone, p. 304]. At Nagasaki a conflagration (a moving fire) occurred which tended to move "up the valley in a direction where there was nothing to burn [p. 304]." It useful to note that in large forest fires it is typical for a fire to climb a hill in search of fuel.Gordon Musgrove in the book Operation Gomorrah: The Hamburg Firestorm Raids (1981) described how a firestorm is aided by the "smokestack effect:""The still conditions [lack of strong winds at the outset] have two main effects: first, the winds are drawn in from all sides and so prevent the fires from spreading outwards; second, the fires develop a strong vertical updraught which in its turn creates an effect like a chimney with open flues at the bottom . . . The stationary column of air is important because without it the stovepipe effect which accentuates the flue-like action of the inrushing air would not be created. The strength of the updraugh increases relative to the temperature, and as the wind grows stronger so the cycle repeats itself until there is nothing left to burn [p. 103]."The Hamburg Fire Department performed an interesting experiment where 1,444 candles were set out on a 20 inch square, much like a highly populated birthday cake. Then an exterior fire was started along the boarders of an octagon containing 400 of the candles. An intense fire moving inwards developed, and that fire could be further accentuated by placing a 20 inch long stove pipe above it to enhance the smokestack effect [p. 105, pictures]. Hamburg and Hiroshima were examples of such a firestorm, at human-scale dimensions.At Hiroshima the population density was 22,700+ per square mile up to 1.6 miles from ground zero. At Nagasaki, population density dropped off sharply from 25,500 within 0.6 miles from ground zero to 4,400 in the 0.6 to 1.6 miles from ground zero [above tables and Glasstone, p. 544]. The amount of flammable materials is often proportional to population densities. Glasstone observed that, "Nagasaki probably did not furnish sufficient fuel for the development of a fire storm as compared to the many buildings on the flat terrain at Hiroshima ."With the encirclement pattern shown earlier, which would involve simultaneously detonating eight weapons, there were eight corresponding primary ignition points and presumably numerous small points of thermal ignitions between these areas. An inward wind direction would encourage fires to coalesce. The winds feeding the fires would appear to have a strong tendency to move inwards toward the center of the circle:because the area to the exterior of the circle is larger and capable of providing more air,because there would tend to be huge updrafts which would reduce the tendency for winds to blow outwards,and because the center fire would require an inflow of air.It is useful to note that disasters such as earthquakes commonly cause fires when buildings collapse (e.g, the 1906 San Francisco fire), even absent thermal effects of the kind produced by nuclear weapons. Further, there is often a heavy dose of human error in major urban fires, such as great fire of London in 1666 and the Chicago fire in 1871.In the nuclear weapons case, the error occurs before the fire, by making such events possible in the first place. Once massive fires have been started at multiple points, such as in the encirclement case, there may be no means for escape. There also may be no way to abate the fire, via fire fighting, since communication and transportation would tend to be severely compromised. Further, survivors may be too injured and so deprived of fire-fighting tools and presented with such an adverse environment of toxins and heat that conducting an organized response would be difficult or impossible. This would be especially true if there were no water pressure due to broken water lines. Indeed, the US Office of Technology Assessment's report on the effects of nuclear war may well have been a whitewash.
The Hamburg Firestorms,the human side
The attackers: The Hamburg firestorms were created by British nighttime bombing. The United States, by contrast, conducted precision daytime bombing raids on Hamburg industrial targets during the same period, which did not produce firestorms [Middlebrook, p. 340]. However, later in Japan, e.g., Tokyo, in a copy of the British area bombing, the U.S. widely used area incendiary raids.The British conducted three main night raids; the fourth on Aug. 2, 1943 was ineffective.On the night of July 24-25, 1943, roughly 5,475 airmen in 807 planes dropped 2,284 tons of bombs (an average 2.8 tons per plane), of which 41% were incendiaries [pp. 110, 323]. An aluminum foil device called Windows was dropped for the first time to confuse German radar. It worked; only 1.5% of the aircraft were lost [p. 166]. In this bomb run many (perhaps 200 or so bomb loads, 25% of all the bombs) were dropped about 3 miles before reaching high density population areas [pp.156-161]. This reduced the level of destruction. Nevertheless, firestorms were started, and vast areas of the city were destroyed. It took 58 minutes to drop all the bombs [p. 198]. A very rough estimate is that 1,500 civilians died [p. 160].The night of July 27-28 was the night of THE HORRIFIC FIRESTORM. Approximately 2,326 tons of bombs, of which 51% were incendiaries, were dropped. There had been a combination of unusually high temperatures (86° Fahrenheit) and low humidity (30% humidity compared to a normal of 40% to 50%) on the day before the raid. And, the bombing was more concentrated [p. 259].Soon after the bombing started, a dense column of smoke rose to the height at which the bombers were flying (20,000 ft, i.e, 3.8 miles). The smoke was so thick that one plane returned with a turret covered with particles of soot [p. 243]. The firestorm started 23 minutes after the first bombs had fallen [p. 261]. During the firestorm, 16,000 apartment buildings along streets totaling 133 miles in length were on fire [p. 263]. In a manner similar to quotations from numerous airmen, one stated: "'A sea of flame' has been the description and that's an understatement. It was so bright that I could read the target maps . . . [p. 244]""Approximately 40,000 people -- nearly all civilians and mostly old folk, women and children -- died either in the streets of the firestorm area or in their shelters [p. 272]." One crude estimate suggests that 38.4% of the dead were men; 50.6%, women; and 11%, children [Musgrove, p. 167].On the night of July 29-30, approximately 2,318 tons of bombs, of which 52% were incendiaries, were dropped. Some of the bombs fell on still burning portions of the city, yet the fires were more widespread and a greater area of the city was destroyed than in previous raids. Approximately 800 people are believed to have died [pp. 291-293]. Casualties were lower than in the previous raids, in part, because many had evacuated and were well-familiar with the consequences of firestorms.The attacked: The attacked city, Hamburg, was independent of Germany until 1871 and remained a customs-free port [p. 76]. It had a close affinity with England, and their merchants had traded together for centuries [p. 78]. One of the heavily hit areas of the city had the distinction of producing the lowest pro-Nazi vote (22.9%) in the 1933 election; the average for the city was 38.7% [pp. 255, 256]. Even a Jewish doctor stated, "The whole mentality of Hamburg was different from the rest of Germany [p. 81]."Its shipyards were famous for manufacturing submarines (Blohm & Voss U-Boat Yard), and there were factories producing aircraft parts (Klöckner Aero-Engine Factory) [pp. 82, 180]. The fire bombing was never heavy in industrial areas [p. 157]. The workers, however, were hit. In Hamburg war industries there was a 48% reduction in workforce from June to October 1943 (267,900 fewer people employed). At Blohm & Voss there was approximately a 25% reduction in workforce in the same period [p. 333].With the war and the exodus of young men who fought in the war, Hamburg became increasingly a city of old people, women and children [p. 81]. The most heavily attacked were the Proletarier, "the common workers," who lived in the U.S. equivalent to public housing projects, except that they were run by non-profit companies who charged low rent [p. 255]. On the night of July 27-A lady clerk in Hamburg, as Middlebrook quoted in The Battle of Hamburg, stated the case succinctly: I have to make this reproach against our enemies of 1939-45; that they directed their attacks quite consciously onto the civilian population. In Hamburg, it was mainly densely populated living areas, with the poorest part of the population and with hardly any industry, which were bombed. It was possible to drop this carpet of bombs over these residential areas because our defences were prevented from operating properly. It was hell on earth. It was obvious that Hitler had to be destroyed, but did this method have to be used? How can people live with such a responsibility on their conscience [p. 338]? Hamburg was one of the most virulent examples of the area bombing technique that the British (R.A.F.) used against Germany. According to Middlebrook, fully 46% of the British air force's effort was devoted to these methods. Hamburg was not an exception, only an extreme example of its "success." The technique cost the lives of an estimated half million Germans and approximately 25,000 British airmen [p. 338]. Middlebrook went on observe that, "The brilliant organization of German industry dispersed, rebuilt and improved faster than the bombers could produce their industrial disruption [p. 343]." And, "the costs in British manpower and industrial production and the disappointing results judged Area Bombing to be of doubtful value [p. 339]."Among the many views pro and con, one British airman's statement stood out:"When I volunteered for aircrew, I had a romantic notion of air fighting. I did not foresee the slaughter that ensued. Whatever statesmen and braided air marshals may say and write, it was barbarous in the extreme. 'Whoever harms a hair on one of these little ones . . . ' I expect no mercy in the life to come. The teacher told us clearly. We disobeyed [p. 349]."
As in most wars, the argument is trotted out that, if "our" techniques are more destructive, then the war will be shortened. Indeed, poison gas was developed by the brilliant German scientist Fritz Haber, who believed that it would bring a swift victory in WWI, and thus limit overall suffering. His wife committed suicide in 1915, tormented by her husband's horrific contribution to the war [Scientific American, July 1997, p. 81]. Haber is known principally for the Haber-Bosch process, which made commercial nitrogen fertilizers possible.Alfred Nobel, too, thought his development of high explosives would make wars too horrible to be fought [Forecast and Solution, p. 268]. And nuclear weapons were used in Japan to reduce the number of war deaths. And now nuclear deterrence is used in a time of peace with the assertion that it will "prevent" war deaths.Hamburg was a replay of this practice. The British were horrified by the slow war of attrition on the Western Front in WWI: "That costly land campaign 'must never be repeated' [p. 341]." Nighttime area bombing "using the limited means available" appeared to be the "solution."
As Middlebrook pointed out:In some ways Area Bombing was a three-year period of deceit practiced upon the British public and on world opinion. It was felt to be necessary that the exact nature of R.A.F. bombing should not be revealed. . . . the impression was usually given that industry was the main target and that any bombing of workers' housing areas was an unavoidable necessity [p. 343]."That deceit is not unlike "counterforce" targeting in nuclear deterrence jargon, which is supposed to indicate that it is military targets, silos, et cetera, that are chiefly targeted. This does not hold up even under the most modest scrutiny, because deterrence is based on a retaliatory force that would be used only after the other side was already sending in missiles from its military sites.Nations do not target empty silos! A retaliatory force is directed predominantly at cities ("countervalue" in the lexicon) to punish them for attacking first. In sharp contrast, the counterforce/ military targeting is of principle value only on first strike, when the nation is the aggressor. So the supposed "morality" of counterforce targeting is no more than the most thinly veiled excuse for a nation to be the aggressor -- to strike the first blow. To do this nations have vast numbers of weapons for supposedly counterforce purposes, as do the U.S. and Russia. Indeed, U.S. Air Force Doctrine clearly states that nuclear forces are for both offensive and defensive purposes.The magnificent deceit perpetrated by the superpowers is their supposed "morality." To target principal cities of an adversary would require very few weapons. By contrast, morality (supposedly to attack military targets) requires vast systems, heavily prone to accidental use on either side, which are principally of use only to an aggressor. Moreover, if silos are attacked, they are hit with ground bursts which produce FAR more radiation than air bursts. Thus their lethality is stretched over longer periods and over broader regions.Simply stated, if a nation is exclusively to attack cities in retaliation, then there is no need for a superpower force structure [Forecast and Solution, p. 322-324]. As can be seen in the "M" (Multiple Blasts) command and on the "War-Room Plans" page in Nukefix, it takes only 354 to 800 Russian warheads to destroy every city and town in the United States that has a population density in excess of 1,000 people per square mile (all urban and metropolitan USA, 36.3% of the U.S. population, 94 million people). Thousands of warheads would not be required for countervalue targeting.Indeed, there is already a real world model of the "city-busting" /countervalue strategy: China [Forecast and Solution, p. 322]. China's position is that that it will attack an aggressors' cities. Thus, there is little incentive to attack China. By maintaining a countervalue policy, China has required very few nuclear warheads in their arsenals (approximately 282-500?). And it has the potential to be far safer and less threatening than the superpower model. At present China does not have sufficient weapons to launch a first strike against a superpower, but it could retaliate. And, thus, it has credible deterrence.China's system is more easily controllable than the superpower system, and it presents less of a threat, which is desirable in so far as the safety of the citizenry is concerned. Not surprisingly, China is the only nuclear weapon nation with a "no first strike" policy.But China has been sufficiently chided in the literature for not having a "modern" nuclear force that assuredly its military has gotten the message and has started to follow the "illustrious" examples of the superpower model. Moreover, in the past few years, they have demonstrated a certain degree of recklessness in terms of nuclear proliferation and arms sales, which may portend a less safe nuclear posture.So the lessons of Hamburg, which come first in fire, may again be repeated thanks to those less dramatic, but quite effective, age-old gems: deception and apathy.
Unparalleled Horror,the nuclear war plans
The U.S. targeted approximately 40 nuclear weapons on the Ukrainian city of Kiev up until early 1991 [Forecast and Solution, p. 305]. The city is a 300 square miles in size, and in 1976 it was the third largest Soviet city, population 2,013,000. Such targeting, if evenly distributed, would have created the following levels of destruction over every square inch of Kiev: 100 Kt weapons = 6.7+ psi destruction; 250 Kt = 8+ psi destruction; and 500 Kt = 11+ psi destruction. Kiev would have been rubble if it were attacked with 40 weapons of any of these sizes. There would have been nothing left. The Russian, or for that matter any nuclear weapon nation's, target plan undoubtedly would promise a similar fate to at least some of its adversary's cities.The simultaneous bursts using encirclement, as suggested above, illustrates that "small" nuclear weapon nations have similar capabilities to destroy cities. It also illustrates the difficulties in arms control, for as the arsenals of superpowers are drawn down to 3,000 weapons, the capabilities for utterly destroying the adversary would not be diminished, because simultaneously detonated weapons will still make it possible to accomplish that end. So arms reductions usually have to reduce the number of nuclear weapons to very low levels in order to significantly reduce risk to the populace.Knowing the maximum destructive capability with any given arsenal is crucial from a policy perspective, because as the new version of Nukefix shows, the annual risks of death posed by each nuclear weapon nation, and all nations together, can be approximated once we have an estimate for the upper limits of destruction.This relates to a very basic concept called mathematical expectation, or simply expectation. When the scale of death is multiplied by its annual probability, then we have the expected annual risk of death posed by the given level of destructive capability. When this is done for all nuclear weapon nations, at all scales of death and corresponding probabilities, as is done transparently when you make a few mouse clicks in the new version of the downloadable computer program Nukefix, then you can readily see the annual risk of death posed by nuclear weapons, and what conditions are capable of reducing that risk, and by how much.
Assumptions regarding scaling: Hiroshima 12.5 Kt, air burst at 1,670 ft; Nagasaki 21 Kt, airburst at 1,670 ft; 250 Kt, airburst at 6,200 ft; and 550 Kt, airburst at 7,000 ft; air burst height with 250 Kt and 550 Kt to maximizes destruction at 3.5 psi. The 250 Kt and 550 Kt bombs did not produce as high a static overpressure at above altitudes in the first photo, for this reason the psi is not indicated as being the same for all weapons in the first photo.
Primary source material: Samuel Glasstone and Philip J. Dolan, The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, Third Edition, prepared and published by the United States Department of Defense and the United States Department of Energy, 1977.
The wood frame test houses in the above photos were hit by a blast of about 16 Kt detonated at an altitude of 300 feet in March 1953. The brick test house was destroyed by a blast of approximately 29 Kt detonated at an altitude of 500 feet in May 1955 [Glasstone, p. 166].
Scaling for different size nuclear weapons was accomplished using the computer program "Weapons Effects, Version 2.1, December 1984, for Director Defense Nuclear Agency is downloadable (We.zip) at The High Energy Weapons Archive . It is an extremely useful program for determining blast and thermal effects of nuclear weapons, although it is crude in terms of current graphics, et cetera.
Firestorm information can be found in: Frederic Solomon, M.D., and Robert Q. Marston, M.D., ed., Medical Implications of Nuclear War, Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, National Academy Press, 1986, especially the articles: Theodore Postol, " Possible Fatalities from Superfires Following Nuclear Attacks in or near Urban Areas" and H. L. Brode and R. D. Small, "A Review of the Physics of Large Urban Fires ."
Source material for the Hamburg fire: Gordon Musgrove, Operation Gomorrah: The Hamburg Firestorm Raids (London: Jane's, 1981) and Martin Middlebrook, The Battle of Hamburg: Allied Bomber Forces against a German City in 1943 (London: Allen Lane, 1980). These books are written from a military perspective, but also reflect civilian aspects with many first-hand accounts. The contrast between the two positions (the military analysis and the civilian consequences) can be somewhat alarming, for the civilian horrors do not abate military actions, either in the tone of writing or in subsequent historical events (to wit Tokyo, etc).
Note that the journal Fire Technology (and many other works in that general area of a major university library) provides numerous interesting articles and good analysis of fire.
For estimates of size of nuclear arsenals see the National Resource Council's analysis.
Ike Jeanes, Forecast and Solution, grappling with the nuclear (Pocahontas Press, 1996).
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